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Investment advisory firm gets 75% return with neural nets.

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G. A. Clarke and Associates, Inc., of Bayside New York, is an investment advisory firm managing a private consortium portfolio. The firm also provides market timing advice to an impressive list of clients. One client, for example, is Prudential’s Municipal Bond High Yield Fund, a $1.9 billion fund which enjoys a Morningstar 5 star rating with one of the highest return histories in its class. The manager of Prudential’s fund also followed Clarke’s market timing advice when he managed a high yield municipal bond portfolio for Fidelity.

George Clarke, the President of G.A. Clarke and Associates, has an impressive CV that spans over 30 years as a broker, trader, college professor, investment advisor, and pension fund manager. He is not only a financial wizard, but he is also a neural network financial wizard, having built successful neural and genetic trading models for several years now. 

His firm has an enviable record of about 75% return per year, with occasional periods showing a whopping annualized 400%, according to Financial Trader Magazine. "Of course, the 400% is not sustainable," George is quick to point out.

According to Financial Trader (March 1997, Inside Trading), George believes that markets are "focused composites of people’s actions. Because most of us hold on to opinions longer than purely rational analysis suggests we should, markets trend."

George uses a reversal system: he is always in the market, either long or short. He forecasts commodities, grains, metals, currencies, financials, etc. He also predicts the S&P 500 sectors. His neural network outputs are either a type of price forecast or market direction forecast.

George has attended two Ward Systems Group seminars, and has previously built his reputation with both NeuroShell 2 and GeneHunter. He now uses the NeuroShell Trader exclusively. "I get better results with Turboprop 2, and I enjoy the greater flexibility the Trader offers," George states flatly. "Flexibility like the walk forward testing and the ability to build complex trading strategies to complement the networks."

George has a repertoire of about 32 indicators for his neural nets. He previously used them all as inputs, but now with the NeuroShell Trader, he only needs about 12 of the 32. He includes some standard indicators like the CCI, which he believes to be very useful as an indicator of the sustainability of trends. He believes the slow stochastic is another good indicator of trends. "If it fails to break through on a second crossover, that indicates a sustainable downtrend," he revealed. George has over 800 indicators to choose from in the NeuroShell Trader.

Another of George’s favorite indicators is the AROON indicator. The AROON indicator can be found in the Advanced Indicator Set 1. George believes AROON is a great indicator of long term trends, and he uses a slightly modified version of it.

About 18 of George’s indicators are proprietary indicators he has invented himself. He says these are based on prices: closing price, momentum, over-bought and over sold, etc. He does not use volume indicators. He does use "genetic filtration techniques", but he would not elaborate on that. 

Financial Trader asked George "Why only prices?" "Price over time is what establishes the trend," he answered. "For us, volume is confirmation of a trend we have already identified and already bought or sold."

We asked George if he ever overrides his neural network decisions. "I put my 30 years of experience into my models, so I go with the work," he replied. "If I have instincts, they go in the system design, not into overrides. When I’ve overridden my nets, I’ve generally been wrong. I question whether a system which allows overrides for successful trading is worthy of being qualified as a system."

Bravo, George. It’s easy to see why you’ve been so successful!

Update - April 16, 2002 George has now started Santege Capital Management Co., LLC, which will cater to high net individuals and institutions.

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